Maize, soy and sugarcane have high commodity value, are major exports, and are grown across the region. We assume that areas with high attainable yields for any of the three crops will be important for many crops or grazing. Areas with attainable yields above the global 50th percentile for each crop were combined to create a composite map of high attainable yields. Maize has the smallest area suitable for high attainable yields.

Attainable yields were estimated using a refined version of a yield model based on current yields and climate analogs (Mueller et al. 2012). A similar approach was al so used to assess risk of biofuel expansion as part of TNC’s Development Risk Assessment (Oakleaf et al. 2015) and elsewhere (West et al. 2014; Mueller et al. 2012). Suitability maps for cropping were based on climate analogs: areas were considered suitable if they shared total annual precipitation and temperature profiles with a cropped area.

We mapped the attainable yields onto the suitable areas, with an additional limitation requiring attainable yields within 50% of the global best yields. Consequently, many areas currently growing these crops are suitable, but are unlikely to have high yields either now and/or in the future relative to the global market. Finally, the high (>50%) attainable yield analyses for each crop were combined to create a composite map. It is assumed that areas that are highly suitable for any of the crops are likely areas of potential intensification or risk of expansion.

Maize, soy and sugarcane have high commodity value, are major exports, and are grown across the region. We assume that areas with high attainable yields for any of the three crops will be important for many crops or grazing. Areas with attainable yields above the global 50th percentile for each crop were combined to create a composite map of high attainable yields. Maize has the smallest area suitable for high attainable yields.

Attainable yields were estimated using a refined version of a yield model based on current yields and climate analogs (Mueller et al. 2012). A similar approach was al so used to assess risk of biofuel expansion as part of TNC’s Development Risk Assessment (Oakleaf et al. 2015) and elsewhere (West et al. 2014; Mueller et al. 2012). Suitability maps for cropping were based on climate analogs: areas were considered suitable if they shared total annual precipitation and temperature profiles with a cropped area.

We mapped the attainable yields onto the suitable areas, with an additional limitation requiring attainable yields within 50% of the global best yields. Consequently, many areas currently growing these crops are suitable, but are unlikely to have high yields either now and/or in the future relative to the global market. Finally, the high (>50%) attainable yield analyses for each crop were combined to create a composite map. It is assumed that areas that are highly suitable for any of the crops are likely areas of potential intensification or risk of expansion.